Competition and a window of opportunity

Here is a very visible problem with monopolies.

During the recent disruption to Yandex services, ordering a taxi in Belarus became difficult. And it wasn't only taxis. What struck me was how few practical alternatives seemed to be available when Yandex went down.

In my original post, I linked the disruption to reported damage to data centres in Russia. The bigger point I want to make is about dependence on one service.

This is a serious problem in our part of the world, where we often like to centralise and consolidate things around the state and large companies.

I'm not against the state helping its technology companies grow. That can be a good thing. But when one service becomes so dominant that its failure disrupts an entire market, something feels unhealthy.

Then there are the competitors.

There is A1 Taxi, but in my view its approach to competing with Yandex is so puzzling that I struggle to see how it plans to take market share. There is also WB Taxi, an interesting attempt, though its scale seems small relative to the size and resources of Wildberries.

A1 surprises me most.

You've just been handed a rare opening in a country where you've operated for decades. Your main competitor is having problems. People can't get cars. Drivers are losing orders. What do you do?

If I were in that position, I'd bring together an emergency team of developers, marketers and operations people over the weekend. I'd pay them properly for the extra work and say: let's do everything we can so people can use our service right now.

I'd notify the existing customer base that taxis are available. I'd run advertising and first-ride offers. For drivers, I'd offer attractive joining terms, bonuses and low commissions.

Taxi services have a classic chicken-and-egg problem. Passengers don't come because there aren't enough drivers; drivers don't come because there aren't enough passengers.

Then, suddenly, there is a rare moment when that circle might be broken.

Obviously, you won't beat Yandex in one weekend. But perhaps you can get tens of thousands of people to try an alternative and drivers to seriously consider another platform, especially one whose terms feel fairer to both sides.

Even if Yandex fully recovers tomorrow, some may stay.

Another thought: I can imagine the next regional unicorn emerging from the taxi market.

But I wouldn't want it to be another Yandex that merely replaces one monopoly with another. I'd want a company that starts with a different market model: fair conditions for drivers, transparent commissions, room for local competitors, and less dependence on a single service whose failure leaves a whole country struggling to get around.

A monopoly is not, by itself, a technological achievement. Sometimes it simply means users have gone too long without a decent choice.

This is one reason I love entrepreneurship. Opportunities that companies spend years and millions in marketing to create can sometimes appear in a single day.

The question is whether you can respond quickly enough.

More broadly, I'd like to see more real competition around us. Competition forces companies to improve. Monopoly allows them to get comfortable.